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May 25 update: 4 new cases, 1.3% positive tests

BY JENNIFER CABRERA

According to the state dashboard, Alachua County now has a cumulative total of 365 COVID-19-positive cases. That’s an increase of 4 from yesterday on 298 test results, so 1.3% of these results were positive.

Seven deaths have been reported in the county. Six of the seven deaths were from one long-term care facility, Parklands Care Center. The 7 deaths were first reported as positive cases on April 9 (2), April 18 (2), April 20, April 21, and April 23.

74 people (total) have been hospitalized–no change in the past 4 days.

The website with current numbers of long-term care cases in Alachua County has not been updated today; yesterday’s report showed 66 cases in these facilities. 52 of those cases are at Parklands Care Center. The chart says, “The data is not cumulative but reflects the information available for current residents and staff with cases as of yesterday’s date.” (The top line shows totals for the state.)

The county report shows a cumulative total of 65 cases in long-term care and 1 case in a correctional facility (this case has been identified as a worker at a Marion County facility who tested positive in March).

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Available bed capacity in Alachua County is 27.08%.

The state has 51,746 cases (an increase of 879 from yesterday on 37,012 new test results for a positive rate of 2.4%) and 2,252 deaths (an increase of 15 from yesterday, 9 of which were from long-term care facilities). It is common for the number of reported deaths to be low on weekends; the reporting usually rebounds on Tuesdays, but that may be delayed to Wednesday this week because of the holiday weekend.

The state is also now publishing a chart of the percentage of new tests that are positive by day (this chart is for the whole state), and yesterday’s positive rate was 2.5%. (The state charts only count people who test positive for the first time, and they may assign results to a different date than the day the test result came back. Our calculations are just positives/total tests for new results.)

Dade County has 34% of the state’s cases. Broward has 13%; Palm Beach 10%; Orange has 4%, and Hillsborough has 3%. Alachua County represents about 1.2% of the state’s population and 0.7% of the state’s cases (this number continues to drop).

15,448 test results have come back so far in Alachua County (up 298 from yesterday), and 15,068 tests have come back negative. Only 2.4% of the local tests have come back positive so far (this number also continues to drop), and 4 of yesterday’s tests came back positive, for a positive rate of 1.3%.

Here is the official graph for Alachua County:

Also, here is the graph for the percentage of emergency department visits for cough, fever, and shortness of breath (normal baseline is around 2%):

According to the daily report, there are 288 cases in Gainesville, 16 in Newberry, 14 in Alachua, 8 in Hawthorne, 6 in High Springs, 4 in Waldo, 4 in Tioga, 3 in Micanopy, 1 in LaCrosse, 1 in Santa Fe, and 1 in Archer. 1 case is listed in the city of “Missing” in Alachua County. Location data is not available for all cases.

The 7-day moving average of new cases is at 4.1 through yesterday’s cases. Here is the 7-day average of new cases for the past 14 days, with a trendline. Keep in mind that this line could start moving up if we continue to test high numbers of people, but the important number is the percentage of positive test results. Also note that when the average is around 4 new cases per day, as it is now, it’s unlikely that we’ll see sustained declines from that number, particularly when we’re doing a lot of testing, as we have been.

Also, we are learning more about the prevalence of false positives in COVID-19 PCR testing; this paper (not yet peer-reviewed) calculates a conservative false positive rate (FPR) of 0.8% and states “The reliability of positive results dropped to near zero in these cases when test positivity approached the estimated FPR.” Our test positivity (see bar chart above) has hovered in the 1% range.

Cases by zip code

32044: 0 cases

32601: 65 cases

32603: <5 cases

32605: 30 cases

32606: 17 cases

32607: 40 cases

32608: 56 cases

32609: 32 cases

32610: <5 cases

32611: 0 cases

32615: 14 cases

32618: <5 cases

32622: 0 cases

32631: 0 cases

32640: 8 cases

32641: 26 cases

32643: 6 cases

32653: 18 cases

32666: 0 cases

32667: <5 cases

32669: 20 cases

32694: <5 cases

Testing information

Drive-Thru COVID-19 Testing
The Florida Department of Health in Alachua County (DOH-Alachua) is offering evening drive-thru COVID-19 testing on Wednesdays, from 4-7 p.m. This is in addition to their regular testing schedule. DOH-Alachua is offering COVID-19 testing to Alachua County residents, regardless of symptoms. Residents who want a COVID-19 test are asked to call 352-334-8810 for an appointment. A referral from a doctor is not required. If your insurance covers this, it will be billed (no copay is required). If not, it is free.

COVID-19 Testing Results Phone Line
The Department of Health in Alachua County has set up a dedicated line for residents to call for COVID-19 test results. The phone number is 352-334-8828, and it is staffed Monday through Friday, from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m.