Alachua County’s higher vaccination rate has not led to lower case rates



Many readers of Alachua County’s Facebook page have noted the tendency to use data only when it supports their desire to get people to wear masks and get vaccinated. (Readers have also noted that Alachua County no longer permits people to comment on the posts, but that’s a topic for another day.)

On September 17, 2021, the County posted data from a single week to praise its policies and the residents of Alachua County: “Our Masking Order and vaccination rate are what differentiate us from our neighboring counties. Have your efforts made a difference? The answer to that is a resounding yes! See the chart below.” The data in the chart came from the Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Weekly Situation Report:

City and county commissioners continue to wear masks and require masks on their employees–and the County requires masks for citizens attending meetings in-person–and they strongly encourage both employees and citizens (with cash incentives) to get vaccinated, but the data now clearly show that Alachua County has much higher case rates than the surrounding counties, all of which have lower vaccination rates. In fact, Alachua County had the third-highest cases per 100,000 population in the state last week, behind only Miami-Dade and Broward.

Of all the surrounding counties, Alachua County has had more COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population each week for the last six weeks and in 8 of the 10 weeks since the state changed its vaccination reporting from the percentage of those 12 and older to the percentage of those 5 and older who are vaccinated (week ending November 11, 2021).

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Looking at Alachua and the surrounding counties, there is a high positive correlation between the vaccination rates and the number of new cases in the week ending January 13 (that number will likely be at or near the peak for this wave, but it is possible that the surrounding counties will peak later and catch up in subsequent weeks, but as you can see above, their slope is not as steep as Alachua’s). The high correlation (0.81) does not hold for the entire state, but it has held fairly steady for Alachua and the surrounding counties during the Omicron surge of the last four weeks (0.79-0.83). Prior to the week ending December 23 (when the wave really started increasing), the correlation was much lower (< 0.54). 

Despite all the pressure to impose vaccine mandates, the data clearly show that vaccination rates have not prevented COVID-19 transmission during the current wave; in fact, the positive correlation indicates that increased vaccination rates may have led to increased transmission for Omicron.

Those who pay attention have known the vaccine was not effective in preventing transmission since early August 2021, when CDC Director Rochelle Walensky admitted on CNN that fully-vaccinated people can transmit SARS-CoV-2. That’s quite a change from December 2020, when the CDC stated that the vaccine was 95% effective in preventing symptomatic spread. As late as March, Walensky told MSNBC that “vaccinated people do not carry the virus, don’t get sick, and that it’s not just in the clinical trials, but also in real-world data.”

It’s not surprising that our local officials continue to refer to “The ScienceTM” while ignoring the data when making their COVID-19 pronouncements. As demonstrated in this August 2021 column, none of the non-pharmaceutical interventions mattered, and now it’s becoming apparent that the vaccines also do not stop the spread of COVID-19. While many public health experts continue to reassure people that the vaccines protect against severe illness and death, that leads inevitably to the conclusion that the choice to be vaccinated is a personal decision, not a societal one.

The height of the Omicron wave everywhere, even in highly-vaccinated states with mask mandates, shatters the narrative that we can stop a respiratory virus with good behavior and demonstrates that the COVID-19 mandates are about politics and control, not safety and health.

  • More evidence of the ongoing need for Springs to simply merge with Gilchrist, not spin off.

  • One theory explains rise on positive but unreliable EUA rapid antigen and/or PCR tests, as rate of vaccination increases — New studies show that the COVID vaccines damage your immune system, perhaps permanently. The vaccines are making it more likely you’ll be infected with the milder Omicron infection 90 days after you are fully vaccinated. Like a Vaxx Junkie….and to keep vaccine effectiveness high against Omicron, vaccination every 30 days is required. (From the Steve Kirch Substack – 1/7/22)

  • It’s all the Goebels “big lie” to usher in the “great reset”…
    It’s all about politics and control and it’s a global campaign. Only people easily brainwashed by MSM,
    Hypochondriacs, and communists are with the program.
    He who sacrifices liberty for safety deserves neither.
    It’s about destroying the US$, our economy, & our
    Constitution, with an obfuscation to implement CO2 regulations to prevent climate change…Government is the devil and it wants to
    Be god. They want to take away your freedom, liberty,
    & your unalienable rights. It’s no extreme coincidence that the Bible mentions a mark in revelations that if you
    Don’t get it, you won’t be able to engage in commerce.

    • Stupid people…they ruined the planet for something
      That has a global 99.9% survival rate…Blame everything on

      • Government is the beast if you don’t know what
        “Mark of the beast” means…

  • Alachua county and sorry-run, near bankrupt City of Gainesville follow anything Nancy P or Joe FJB Biden lead them into, mainly hoping for higher dem offices down the road. To hell with the facts or evidence, they really, really wannabe faithful dem leaders, even as Biden becomes the biggest failure ever in the free world! That’s par for the course since there are very few success on AC leaders and zero personal successes of any City of G commissioner. Four!!! Get em out!

  • Harvard Research Confirms What We’ve Been Saying for Months; There is not evidentiary correlation between cases and vaccination rates – See Justin Hart at Rational Ground – Oct 13 2021

    STUDY – “Increases in COVID‑19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States” – https://tinyurl.com/4sp7e2xz

  • I was wondering how positive test results get assigned to a county, thinking maybe since Alachua county has 3 major hospitals and a great deal of medical clinics in the county, the positive numbers are skewed.
    So I looked up the CDC jurisdiction assignment info and it basically was assigned to the patient’s resident county first, then the testing county. If the test facility is not given the patient’s info (thank you HPAA), it will be assigned to the clinic or hospital that took the test.

    The following is from the CDC website.

    Geographic assignment
    Geographic assignment is based on the first location available, in this order:

    Patient residence location
    Provider facility location
    Ordering facility location
    Performing organization location

    So maybe this helps make it look like Alachua county vaccination program is not working properly.
    Before someone slams me, I am not saying Len’s data is wrong, just wondering if it is that clean cut.

  • Once again Len Cabrera has demonstrated the courage to use real data to debunk the hysteria and tyranny of our county and city commissioners. Why though do these government officials not respond to facts and reason?
    Follow the money trail to see how and why certain people in government are getting their palms greased to ensure that they ignore facts and reason. Whores usually do anything for a buck.

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