COVID-19 fatality rate is still dropping rapidly in Florida
BY JENNIFER CABRERA
This is an update of the information in our July 10 and July 15 articles on this topic. The graph above shows that even with the deaths after July 10 added to the data, the death rate for people who tested positive for COVID in June or early July was much lower than it was in April.
There has been a great deal of concern about rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in Florida, but the real question is whether these cases translate into correspondingly large numbers of deaths; as we’ll show below, this is unlikely because people who get sick now are far less likely to suffer adverse consequences than they were in April or May.
We used Florida’s case line data (July 24 update), which does not exaggerate the number of cases because it includes one line per person. It also shows whether or not that person was hospitalized or passed away (but not the date of either). Using this data allows a comparison of cases to deaths without worrying about a specific lag time for the disease process. The graphs include the entire state instead of Alachua County because the county didn’t have enough COVID-19 deaths over that period to make the data meaningful.
The graphs below show the percentage of daily cases that later died, regardless of death date (i.e., the graph shows the percentage of people who tested positive on each date who later died). The overall rate has dropped dramatically since the start of May. The 65+ rate has been dropping since mid-April and started dropping even faster after May 27. Note that these graphs stop with people who tested positive on July 10, allowing two weeks for the cases to resolve.
This table shows how the overall average COVID-19 death rate has dropped by 75%, from 6.48% in April to 1.65% in June (up from 1.44% in the July 15 update); the death rate for those over 65 has dropped by half, from 20.51% to 10.39%; and the death rate for people under 65 has dropped by 71%, from 1.37% to 0.40%.
| All | 65+ | <65 | |
| Apr | 6.51% | 20.59% | 1.38% |
| May | 5.12% | 18.80% | 0.85% |
| Jun | 1.65% | 10.39% | 0.40% |
| Jul (1-10) | 0.78% | 5.26% | 0.18% |
The following graphs show how the case fatality rate has changed since the beginning of April for all cases, for people over 65, and for people under 65.
Thank you Jennifer – The current national breakdown for mortality risk by age group: (> 65) = 1 in 500, (45-65) = 1 in 2,500, (25-44) = 1 in 16,666, (0-24) = 1 in 250,000. Compare this to overall mortality risk for pedestrians killed while walking (All age groups) = 1 in 541. — See the Highwire feature segment that challenges this data as unworthy of the CDC classification as a “pandemic”. The end of masks, social distancing, testing and unemployment is long overdue. – https://youtu.be/oXLXCRzMo7Qhttps://youtu.be/oXLXCRzMo7Q
Thank you Jennifer — The current national breakdown for mortality risk by age group: (> 65) = 1 in 500, (45-65) = 1 in 2,500, (25-44) = 1 in 16,666, (0-24) = 1 in 250,000. Compare this to overall mortality risk for pedestrians killed while walking (All age groups) = 1 in 541. — See the Highwire feature segment that challenges this data as unworthy of the CDC classification as a “pandemic”. The end of masks, social distancing, testing and unemployment is long overdue. – https://youtu.be/oXLXCRzMo7Q
[…] Alachua County Chronicle local news reported that despite the rise in reported cases in the state, the death rates for people who tested […]
Maybe it’s time to update your chart with the new deaths cause looks like it’s trending upward now since the weekend. Also might want to mention all of the young people who are starting to die now. Youngest child now reported in Florida with no previous health issues. Ignorant reporting once again.
Mr, Gutter, statistics don’t lie. Don’t complain about honest reporting that doesn’t match your preconceived world view.
The data points to what we would rationally expect, a declining death rate from learning. The world isn’t static. We try treatments, learn which ones are most effective, then apply that knowledge. This leads to declining mortality rates. Learn to perceive how humanity moves forward applying the scientific method.
Statistics don’t lie, but you can lie with statistics. For example, you can choose to publish graphs of death rates to make it appear like the danger from COVID-19 is lessening … like the Chronicle did.
OR, you can publish graphs of how the number of cases in Florida is surging, causing a potential shortage of ICU beds available and quite possibly causing the postponement of elective surgery again. If it gets bad enough, like some other hospitals are already beginning to experience, it may even impact the availability of beds available for heart attacks and car accidents and the like.
So what’s more important for the average reader, a percentage or the fact that we’re heading into possible medical emergencies?
Been waiting for these.
Finally ! These charts were available a couple months ago, but disappeared. This is what we need to make educated decisions.
I would hope you are not following this site to provide you with resources to make an educated decision.
Fake new
[…] is an update of the information in our July 10, July 15, July 24 , and July 30 articles on this topic. The graph above shows that even with the […]
[…] at The Alachua Chronicle)This is an update of the information in our July 10, July 15, July 24 , July 30, and August 10 articles on this topic. The graph above shows that even with the […]