July 20 update: 64 new positive tests, 1 new hospitalization, 1 new death

BY JENNIFER CABRERA

For the first time since mid-June, the 7-day moving average of new cases is trending slightly downward.

According to the state dashboard, Alachua County has a cumulative total of 2,683 people with COVID-19-positive test results, an increase of 64 from yesterday on 569 test results for a raw test positivity rate of 11.25%. The median age of positive tests (overall) in Alachua County is 30. One new hospitalization was reported, and one new death was reported.

The new death is an 93-year-old female who tested positive on July 8; it doesn’t look like any contact tracing was done. A source has told me that the two most recent deaths were in hospice, and this is supported by the fact that the case data doesn’t show them as being hospitalized.

The new hospitalization is a 13-year-old female who is hospitalized but didn’t visit an emergency room. She first tested positive on July 15.

Perhaps the best news is that data from county emergency rooms (which is delayed – it currently only goes to July 12) shows that visits peaked around July 5:

FDOH-Alachua County Administrator Paul Myers told the county commission this week that test results are taking up to 14 days to come back, so some of the 64 tests that came back today could date back to the peak on the graphs above.

Of the 1,600 people who tested positive between June 11 (the beginning of the “spike” in cases) and July 10 (cutting it off at July 10 allows a conservative 10 days from the positive test to hospitalization), only 25 (1.6%) have been hospitalized, and two have died (0.125%).

Around June 11, the number of new daily cases jumped about 10-fold, but then it stayed there. So we went from 4-8 per day to 50-80 per day. Scroll to the graphs at the bottom to see that the number of cases is now essentially flat; there has been no further jump.

This is a very different disease in young people than in the very old. The fear is that the increase in young cases will spread to older people, but so far that’s not happening (and the spike is now 39 days old).

Of the 64 people whose tests came back yesterday, 7 were 65 or older (the graphic only shows 62 total; sometimes the case line data and graphics don’t match up, but the case line data also shows 7 people).

A total of fourteen deaths have been reported in the county. Ten of the deaths were reportedly from one long-term care facility, Parklands Care Center. The 13 deaths were first reported as positive cases on April 9 (4), April 18 (2), April 20, April 21, April 23, May 10, May 12, May 24, July 7, and July 8.

113 people (total) have been hospitalized, an increase of one from yesterday. Ten people have been added to the hospitalization total in the past week. Note that hospitalizations are not necessarily people who seek care for COVID; everyone who is admitted to the hospital for any reason is now tested, and a hospital administrator said last Tuesday during the governor’s press conference that 30%-40% of “COVID admissions” are people who are admitted for other reasons and test positive after admission. He also said they are almost always asymptomatic.

The website with current numbers of long-term care cases in Alachua County shows 87 cases, an increase of 1 from the previous report. Only 10 of the current cases are from Parklands Care Center (all staff members are now listed as negative), and Tacachale is now at 51. 19th Street Group Home has made its first appearance on the list. The chart says, “The data is not cumulative but reflects the information available for current residents and staff with cases as of yesterday’s date.” (The top line shows totals for the state.)

The county report shows a cumulative total of 81 cases in long-term care (no change from yesterday) and 20 cases in a correctional facility (no change).

Available hospital bed capacity in Alachua County is 20.28%, and ICU capacity is 16.23%.

North Florida Regional has 4 ICU beds available (8% of capacity), and Shands has 46 available (18% of capacity). ICU beds are used for all intensive-care patients, not just COVID patients.

The state has 360,394 cases (an increase of 10,347 from yesterday on 49,632 new test results for a raw positive rate of 20.8%) and 5,072 deaths (an increase of 90 from yesterday, 30 of which were from long-term care facilities). Deaths are delayed and may go all the way back to March. At the same time, the number of deaths that actually occurred yesterday could increase at any time in the next few months.

Here are the dates of the new deaths:

7/20 – 1
7/19 – 4
7/18 – 14
7/17 – 9
7/16 – 4
7/15 – 5
7/14 – 7
7/13 – 10
7/12 – 4
7/11 – 3
7/10 – 4
7/9 – 3
7/8 – 3
7/7 – 3
7/6 – 3
7/5 – 1
7/4 – 1
7/3 – 2
7/2 – 5
7/1 – 1
6/27 – 2
6/23 – 1

Here is a graph of fatalities by date through 7 days ago (although small numbers of deaths are being added to dates older than 7 days ago, recent dates will continue to have large increases for at least a week, so it’s cut off to remove large drops that will not hold up):

This graph smooths out the data by taking a 7-day moving average; it cuts off at July 13:

The state also publishes a chart of the percentage of new tests that are positive by day (this chart is for the whole state), and yesterday’s positive rate was 14.74%. (The state charts only count people who test positive for the first time, and they may assign results to a different date than the day the test result came back. Our calculations are just positives/total tests for new results.)

Dade County has 24% of the state’s cases. Broward has 11%; Palm Beach 7%; Hillsborough has 7%; and Orange has 7%. Alachua County represents about 1.2% of the state’s population and 0.74% of the state’s cases (this is dropping).

57,683 test results have come back so far in Alachua County (up 569 from yesterday). 4.65% of the local tests have come back positive so far, and 64 tests came back positive since yesterday’s report, for a raw positive test rate of 11.25%. This chart is for Alachua County, so the official rate was 6.7%.

The University of Florida is reporting 50 positive tests out of 19,877 employees tested since May 6. This is a positive rate of 0.25%. 2 of the last 493 tests were positive, for a positive rate of 0.4%.

UF is also now reporting its testing of students, and it shows 162 positives out of 656 tests for a positive rate of 25%. 11 out of the last 72 results have come back positive, for a positive rate of 15%.

According to the daily report, there are 2,171 cases in Gainesville, 163 in Alachua, 111 in Newberry, 48 in Archer, 47 in High Springs, 35 in Hawthorne, 21 in Micanopy, 10 in Waldo, 8 in Santa Fe, 6 in Tioga, 5 in LaCrosse, and 2 in Earleton. 7 cases are listed in the city of “Missing” in Alachua County, and 1 case is erroneously listed in “Wesley Chapel” in Alachua County. Location data is not available for all cases.

The 7-day moving average of new cases is at 76.3 through yesterday’s cases. Here is the 7-day average of new cases for the past 14 days; the trendline is slightly decreasing, for the first time since mid-June.

Testing information

Drive-Thru COVID-19 Testing
The Florida Department of Health in Alachua County (DOH-Alachua) is offering drive-thru COVID-19 testing on Wednesdays from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. and Fridays from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. DOH-Alachua is offering COVID-19 testing to Alachua County residents, regardless of symptoms. Residents who want a COVID-19 test are asked to call 352-334-8810 for an appointment. A referral from a doctor is not required. If your insurance covers this, it will be billed (no copay is required). If not, it is free.

COVID-19 Testing Results Phone Line
The Department of Health in Alachua County has set up a dedicated line for residents to call for COVID-19 test results. The phone number is 352-334-8828, and it is staffed Monday through Friday, from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m.