July 7 update: 65 new positive tests, no new hospitalizations, no new deaths

BY JENNIFER CABRERA

According to the state dashboard, Alachua County has a cumulative total of 1701 people with COVID-19-positive test results, an increase of 65 from yesterday on 471 test results for a test positivity rate of 13.8%. The median age of positive tests (overall) in Alachua County remains at 29.

The charts below show the age distribution of cases in Alachua County and a comparison of the ages of cases before and after June 10. The migrant worker tests first started coming in on June 10, and protests with large numbers of participants occurred on the weekend of June 13. (Scroll down to the graphs at the bottom to see how they change around June 18-19, which is when you would expect to start seeing infections from a June 13 event.)

The age distribution changed markedly around June 10. Before June 10, 36% of positive tests were 35 or under; after June 10, 70% of positive tests were 35 or under.

As of July 5, the case fatality rate for those under 35 in Alachua County is 0%; in Florida, it’s 0.037%, less than half the accepted fatality rate of flu (which ranges from 0.1% to 0.18%). Since we know that not all infections are caught by testing, the actual fatality rate is lower.

The hospitalization rate for those who test positive and are 35 or under in Alachua County is 1.4%; in Florida, it’s 1.8%.

Of the 674 cases between June 11 and June 27 (cutting it off at June 27 allows a conservative 10 days from the positive test to hospitalization), only 9 (1.4%) overall have been hospitalized, and none have died.

In the 26 days before June 10, Alachua County had 10 hospitalizations for 84 cases (12%). In the 26 days since June 10, Alachua County has had 12 hospitalizations for 1225 cases (1%). In those same time periods, Florida had 3092 hospitalizations for 23,183 cases (13.3%) and 4117 hospitalizations for 139,472 cases (3%)

This chart shows the percentage of cases in each age group before and after June 10 (as of July 5).

This is a very different disease in young people than in the very old. The fear is that the increase in young cases will spread to older people, but so far that’s not happening (and the spike is now 27 days old).

This graph (data through June 30) shows the actual number of daily cases by age group. You can see the spike around June 11 from the migrant farm workers and a second one around June 18, possibly from the large student gatherings in protests on the weekend of June 13. You can also see that the number of positive tests in older people is creeping up but hasn’t changed drastically.

This is the same graph, but using a 7-day moving average:

A total of twelve deaths have been reported in the county. Ten of the deaths were reportedly from one long-term care facility, Parklands Care Center. The 12 deaths were first reported as positive cases on April 9 (4), April 18 (2), April 20, April 21, April 23, May 10, May 12, and May 24.

96 people (total) have been hospitalized, no increase in the past 5 days. Three people have been added to the hospitalization total in the past week. Note that hospitalizations are not necessarily people who seek care for COVID; everyone who is admitted to the hospital for any reason is now tested, and a hospital administrator said today during the governor’s press conference that 30%-40% of “COVID admissions” are people who are admitted for other reasons and test positive after admission. He also said they are almost always asymptomatic.

The website with current numbers of long-term care cases in Alachua County shows 113 cases, up 5 from the previous report. 63 of the cases are from Parklands Care Center, and Tacachale is now up to 28. The chart says, “The data is not cumulative but reflects the information available for current residents and staff with cases as of yesterday’s date.” (The top line shows totals for the state.)

The county report shows a cumulative total of 78 cases in long-term care (the same as yesterday) and 2 cases in a correctional facility (I’ve been told that both of these are related to correctional facilities in other counties). 12 cases have been reported in the Alachua County Jail.

Available bed capacity in Alachua County is 18.8%. You may have seen stories about hospital capacity around the state, tying the increased number of patients to COVID. The truth is that the increased number of patients is from elective procedures that were delayed during the pandemic.

The state has 213,794 cases (an increase of 7,347 from yesterday on 35,330 new test results for a positive rate of 20.8%) and 3,841 deaths (an increase of 63 from yesterday, 30 of which were from long-term care facilities). It is normal for the reported number of deaths to go up on Tuesdays. There are delays in reporting deaths, and I haven’t figured out how to tell the actual date of death, but there is some evidence that not all of the deaths that are currently being reported are recent.

The state also publishes a chart of the percentage of new tests that are positive by day (this chart is for the whole state), and yesterday’s positive rate was 16.27%. (The state charts only count people who test positive for the first time, and they may assign results to a different date than the day the test result came back. Our calculations are just positives/total tests for new results.)

Dade County has 24% of the state’s cases. Broward has 11%; Palm Beach 8%; Hillsborough has 7%; and Orange has 7%. Alachua County represents about 1.2% of the state’s population and 0.8% of the state’s cases.

46,114 test results have come back so far in Alachua County (up 471 from yesterday), and 44,402 tests have come back negative. 3.7% of the local tests have come back positive so far, and 65 tests came back positive since yesterday’s report, for a positive test rate of 13.8%.

The University of Florida is reporting 35 positive tests out of 20,817 employees tested since May 6. This is a positive rate of 0.17%; it is now clear that not all negative tests are being reported by the state because UF reported 3,527 new tests since July 4 (only one of which was positive), and the state only reported 1,423 test results in that same time period. That means the overall positivity rate for Alachua County (assuming these employees are Alachua County residents) drops to 2.5%.

Note that this clearly indicates that there are negative tests we don’t know about; positive tests have to be reported to the state, but negative tests don’t. When organizations report positive tests but not negative tests, that skews the percentage positive higher than the true number.

Here is the official graph for Alachua County:

Also, here is the graph for the percentage of emergency department visits for cough, fever, and shortness of breath (normal baseline is around 2%). The line list of cases confirms what this graph shows: many more people are going to the emergency room than are being admitted to the hospital.

According to the daily report, there are 1398 cases in Gainesville, 94 in Alachua, 64 in Newberry, 32 in High Springs, 24 in Archer, 18 in Hawthorne, 9 in Waldo, 8 in Micanopy, 5 in Santa Fe, 5 in Tioga, 4 in LaCrosse, and 2 in Earleton. 4 cases are listed in the city of “Missing” in Alachua County, 1 each is listed in “Port Richey” and “Wesley Chapel” in Alachua County. Location data is not available for all cases.

The 7-day moving average of new cases is at 72.3 through yesterday’s cases. Here is the 7-day average of new cases for the past 14 days.

Testing information

Drive-Thru COVID-19 Testing
The Florida Department of Health in Alachua County (DOH-Alachua) is offering drive-thru COVID-19 testing on Wednesdays from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. and Fridays from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. DOH-Alachua is offering COVID-19 testing to Alachua County residents, regardless of symptoms. Residents who want a COVID-19 test are asked to call 352-334-8810 for an appointment. A referral from a doctor is not required. If your insurance covers this, it will be billed (no copay is required). If not, it is free.

COVID-19 Testing Results Phone Line
The Department of Health in Alachua County has set up a dedicated line for residents to call for COVID-19 test results. The phone number is 352-334-8828, and it is staffed Monday through Friday, from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m.