Len Cabrera: School Board’s focus on equity wasted time and money, and our kids are no better off than they were in 2018

ANALYSIS

BY LEN CABRERA

Since 2018, the Alachua County Public Schools district has been prioritizing equity above all other educational outcomes. Two of the stated goals were to raise the achievement of black students by 3 percentage points each year and to eliminate the achievement gap within 10 years. Now, six years into the ten-year plan, it’s time for the school district to admit that the plan has been a complete failure.

A recent Florida Department of Education (FLDOE) press release touted “notable year-over-year improvement across the state.” Commissioner of Education Manny Diaz, Jr, said, “The substantial gains achieved by Florida’s students on all statewide assessments demonstrate that progress monitoring is working.” 

Unfortunately, the statewide standards were changed in 2023, conveniently making it impossible to properly compare the last couple of years with the pre-COVID era (or the implementation of the district’s Equity Plan). At least, that’s what the professional education establishment will tell you.

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State measures percentage of students who score 3 or higher on assessment tests

Although the standards and scoring scale have changed, the reporting system is essentially unchanged: results are presented as the percentage of students who score 3 or higher, with level 3 signifying “satisfactory” or “on grade level.” So while the actual standards might be different in different school years, the proportion of students who meet the standards can still be compared to see how well our education system did (or did not) educate students to meet the standards of the time. (Whether the changing standards are appropriate is a matter for a different column.)

State-wide results vs. ACPS results

The FLDOE press release highlighted the state-wide improvement during the 2023-24 school year from the first progress monitoring test (PM1) to the third and last progress monitoring test (PM3): 20 percentage points in English Language Arts (ELA) and 42 percentage points in Math. Despite these gains over the academic year, barely half the students finished the year at grade level or above: 53% in ELA and 56% in math.

Both of those numbers were slightly worse in Alachua County: 52% in ELA and 51% in math, with gains of 15 and 34 percentage points, respectively. That means our students did not progress as well as the rest of the state and nearly half the students are not performing at grade level.

FLDOE claims a state-wide 4 percentage point improvement from 2022-23 to 2023-24 in the PM3 assessments; that’s a slight exaggeration, thanks to rounding. The scores went from 49.2% to 52.9%, a 3.7 percentage point improvement. There’s a similar rose-colored 4 percentage point improvement claim for the math assessment, but the actual increase was only 3.3 percentage points (51.4% to 54.7%).

The Alachua County improvements from 2022-23 to 2023-24 were not as good: a 2.8 percentage point increase in ELA scores (49.4% to 52.2%) and a 1.1 percentage point increase in math scores (50.2% to 51.3%).

Despite these gains, the 2023-24 performance is well below the pre-COVID year, 2018-19. Compared to 2018-2019, ELA results are 2.5 percentage points lower at the state level (55.4% down to 52.9%) and 4.1 percentage points lower in Alachua County (56.3% down to 52.2%). Math results are 3.2 percentage points lower at the state level (57.9% down to 54.7%) and 3.1 percentage points lower in Alachua County (54.4% down to 51.3%).

As stated earlier (and on the FLDOE data portal), we cannot technically compare the pre-2022 ELA and math assessments to the new standards used in 2023-24 (and retrofitted for 2022-23). However, the results are amazingly consistent all the way back to the 2014-15 school year, using data we downloaded after the 2021-22 school year. While overall performance jumps around from year to year (especially after the missing COVID year), there is a statistically significant downward trend, although you could argue whether this has practical significance since performance is only dropping 0.2 percentage points per year for the state and 0.7 per year for Alachua. Educational results by race (including the black-white performance gap) are also remarkably consistent.

Using the missing 2019-20 year as a break point, you could argue that performance was better before COVID. Florida’s average ELA performance dropped 2.2 percentage points from 2014-2019 compared to 2020-2024 (53.5% to 51.3%,) and Alachua County’s ELA performance dropped 4.2 percentage points (55.9% to 51.7%). The state-wide math performance dropped 4.2 percentage points (55.2% to 51.0%), and Alachua County’s math performance dropped 5.9 percentage points (55.5% to 49.6%). Again, these numbers are comparing different standards during different years, and some may not think a 2-4 percentage point drop is large enough to be a cause for concern.

ELA performance for the state and Alachua County from 2014-15 to 2023-24. Note that the magnitude of the change is amplified because the Y axis goes from 40% to 58% and that Alachua County was above the state average in 2014-15 but slightly below it in 2023-24.
Math performance for the state and Alachua County from 2014-15 to 2023-24. Note that the magnitude of the change is amplified because the Y axis goes from 40% to 60% and that Alachua County was above the state average in 2014-15 but below it in 2023-24.

Black-white performance gaps are essentially unchanged

Remember, however, that the School Board’s main focus since 2018 has been equity, not achievement; their top priority has been reducing the black-white performance gap. What did six years of misguided policy buy our students? Here are the black-white performance gaps in ELA and math for both the state and Alachua County.

ELA black-white performance gap (difference between percentage of white students at grade level and percentage of black students at grade level) for Alachua County (green) and the state (black) from 2014-15 to 2023-24.
Math black-white performance gap (difference between percentage of white students at grade level and percentage of black students at grade level) for Alachua County (green) and the state (black) from 2014-15 to 2023-24.

The gaps are essentially unchanged. The slight improvement (reduction in the gap) from 2022-23 to 2023-24 did not come from raising the performance of black students. The ELA gap was 41.5% in 2023-24, down from the 45.0% average gap between 2014-15 and 2018-19. However, black students held steady, right around 28% performing at grade level. The 3.5 percentage point drop in the performance gap resulted from white student performance falling from 73.2% prior to the Equity Plan to 69.6% in 2023-24. The math result is worse because performance for both student groups got worse (2.8 percentage points lower for whites and 1.1 percentage points lower for blacks). If only someone had warned that the gap would likely be narrowed by reducing the performance of the top students rather than raising the performance of the lowest-scoring students.

Alachua County’s black-white performance gap is the largest in the state because our white students consistently perform better than whites in the state (about 8 percentage points in ELA and 5 percentage points in math). Our black students consistently perform worse than blacks in the state (8 percentage points in ELA and 9 percentage points in math). These gaps are fairly consistent from year to year.

ELA performance from 2014-15 to 2023-24 by race, for state-wide and Alachua County students.
Math performance from 2014-15 to 2023-24 by race, for state-wide and Alachua County students.

Asian students consistently perform better than white and black students

If you’re tempted to blame “systemic racism,” maybe you should ask whether our system is set up to favor Asian students. Their performance is consistently better than our white students (about 12 percentage points better in ELA and 17 percentage points better in math). They are also better than Asians in the rest of the state (about 7 percentage points better in ELA and 6 in math). 

ELA performance from 2014-15 to 2023-24 by race, for Alachua County students.
Math performance from 2014-15 to 2023-24 by race, for Alachua County students.

Does Alachua County Public Schools’ focus on equity benefit the students?

Maybe we should look at factors other than skin color that differentiate our Asian, white, and black students from each other and their state-level counterparts. What is our public school system doing differently from the rest of the state? The district’s focus on equity and the performance gap is clearly not narrowing the gap and not improving student performance.

In fact, given the remarkably consistent student performance since the 2014-15 school year, you could argue that all the money and time spent on administrators, offsites, teacher development, conferences, and equity resources were essentially wasted. Parents should demand that the school board focus on achievement and ancillary issues like discipline that affect the learning environment, but we won’t get back the wasted money, and the students whose academic careers (and future earning potential) were sacrificed to progressive experiments have no recourse.

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To reproduce these charts from the 2018-19 to 2023-24 school years, use this link. Click on “Assessments – Statewide” and accept the acknowledgement that scores can’t be compared prior to 2022-23. This opens the data portal. Click on “Build A Table” in the upper right. Set “Indicator – 1:” to either “(None)” or “Race” and “District:” to either “(All)” or “01-Alachua.” From the bottom menu, click on “Download” and select the “Crosstab” option to get an Excel file for your current selection.

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