May 29 update: 6 new cases, 0.63% positive tests

BY JENNIFER CABRERA

According to the stateĀ dashboard, Alachua County has a cumulative total of 378 COVID-19-positive cases, an increase of 6 from yesterday on 956 test results, for a positive test rate of 0.63%.

Seven deaths have been reported in the county. Six of the seven deaths were from one long-term care facility, Parklands Care Center. The 7 deaths were first reported as positive cases on April 9 (2), April 18 (2), April 20, April 21, and April 23.

74 people (total) have been hospitalized–no change in the past 8 days.

The website with current numbers of long-term care cases in Alachua County shows 72 cases in these facilities, up 1 since yesterday. 58 of those cases are from Parklands Care Center. The chart says, ā€œThe data is not cumulative but reflects the information available for current residents and staff with cases as of yesterday’s date.ā€ (The top line shows totals for the state.)

TheĀ county reportĀ shows a cumulative total of 69 cases in long-term care and 1 case in a correctional facility (this case has been identified as a worker at a Marion County facility who tested positive in March).

Available bed capacityĀ in Alachua County is 19.08%.

The state has 54,497 cases (an increase of 1,212 from yesterday on 30,839 new test results for a positive rate of 3.9%) and 2,413 deaths (an increase of 49 from yesterday, 35 of which were from long-term care facilities).

The state also publishes a chart of the percentage of new tests that are positive by day (this chart is for the whole state), and yesterday’s positive rate was 3.19%. (The state charts only count people who test positive for the first time, and they may assign results to a different date than the day the test result came back. Our calculations are just positives/total tests for new results.)

Dade County has 33% of the state’s cases. Broward has 13%; Palm Beach 11%; Orange has 4%, and Hillsborough has 4%. Alachua County represents about 1.2% of the state’s population and 0.69% of the state’s cases.

18,030 test results have come back so far in Alachua County (up 956 from yesterday), and 17,644 tests have come back negative. Only 2.1% of the local tests have come back positive so far, and 6 of yesterday’s tests came back positive, for a positive test rate of 0.63%.

Here is the official graph for Alachua County:

Also, here is the graph for the percentage of emergency department visits for cough, fever, and shortness of breath (normal baseline is around 2%):

According to theĀ daily report, there are 298 cases in Gainesville, 16 in Newberry, 15 in Alachua, 8 in Hawthorne, 7 in High Springs, 4 in Waldo, 4 in Tioga, 3 in Micanopy, 1 in LaCrosse, 1 in Santa Fe, and 1 in Archer. 1 case is listed in the city of ā€œMissingā€ in Alachua County. Location data is not available for all cases.

The 7-day moving average of new cases is at 3.9 through yesterday’s cases. Here is the 7-day average of new cases for the past 14 days, with a trendline. Keep in mind that as the moving average goes back and forth from 3 to 4, this line can have a slight upward or downward trend over 14 days, but the important number is the percentage of positive test results. Also note that when the average is around 4 new cases per day, as it is now, it’s unlikely that we’ll see sustained declines from that number, particularly when we’re doing a lot of testing, as we have been.

Also, we are learning more about the prevalence of false positives in COVID-19 PCR testing;Ā this paperĀ (not yet peer-reviewed) calculates a conservative false positive rate (FPR) of 0.8% and states ā€œThe reliability of positive results dropped to near zero in these cases when test positivity approached the estimated FPR.ā€ Our test positivity (see bar chart above) has hovered in the 1% range.

Cases by zip code

32044: 0 cases

32601: 66 cases

32603: <5 cases

32605: 31 cases

32606: 18 cases

32607: 42 cases

32608: 60 cases

32609: 32 cases

32610: <5 cases

32611: 0 cases

32615: 15 cases

32618: <5 cases

32622: 0 cases

32631: 0 cases

32640: 8 cases

32641: 26 cases

32643: 7 cases

32653: 18 cases

32666: 0 cases

32667: <5 cases

32669: 20 cases

32694: <5 cases

Testing information

Drive-Thru COVID-19 Testing
The Florida Department of Health in Alachua County (DOH-Alachua) is offering evening drive-thru COVID-19 testing on Wednesdays, from 4-7 p.m. This is in addition to their regular testing schedule. DOH-Alachua is offering COVID-19 testing to Alachua County residents, regardless of symptoms. Residents who want a COVID-19 test are asked to call 352-334-8810 for an appointment. A referral from a doctor is not required. If your insurance covers this, it will be billed (no copay is required). If not, it is free.

COVID-19 Testing Results Phone Line
The Department of Health in Alachua County has set up a dedicated line for residents to call for COVID-19 test results. The phone number is 352-334-8828, and it is staffed Monday through Friday, from 8 a.m.-4:30 p.m.

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